Are we in the same position now?

Yes--and looking back one can see that there have been a series of powers that have risen to (known) world domination, only to decline after about 100 years. (I have to give credit to "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" for pointing this out.)

In the 15th century it was Portugal, followed by Spain, France, and England. (Remember "the sun never sets on the Union Jack?")

And the 20th century saw the U.S. spreads its influence world-wide.

What caused the downfalls? The author of the above book suggests that it was a country expanding beyond its power and ability to control.

Perhaps there is a finite limit to erxpansion and domination.

As for the 21st century, it will surely be a Pacific Rim country--Japan came to mind when I first read the book, but China is (IMHO) a stronger possibilty.

We Americans, as a people, have a certain amount of hubris and deny the possibility that America just might not be a world leader forever.

Japan is rapidly becoming one large geriatric center...the demographics don't support them doing anything except developing humanoid robots to help care for the elderly and keep them company...sadly.
We lived there for over six years.

China has a shot at some kind of empire, demographically. They have a huge surplus of young males, an unanticipated out come of the sad and brutal one child per couple rule...girl children have been aborted, or possibly exposed in rural areas, in an attempt to ensure the family name/lineage carries on...There could be hell to pay when they all reach their 20's and 30's and many can't find a bride. We'll see how the unlikely fusion of free enterprise and one party hide-bound oppressive rule works out...

It seems that when something goes wrong in China, it goes hugely wrong...as the melamine poisoning of milk products and, earlier, industrial poisoning of pet foods would seem to show.

Doug

These are only estimates and I don't know if they're honest (remember the computer generated fireworks and the lip-synching child singer at the olympics), but they don't look that bad until you apply these proportions to a huge population...300 million Chinese children under 15 would equate to 18 million very unhappy Chinese men in the next 15 years... that would make quite an army.

At birth: 1.11 male(s)/female (2008 est.)

(roughly 53% male, 47 % female, or 6% of the male population without a bride)

Under 15 years: 1.13 male(s)/female (2008 est.)
15-64 years: 1.06 male(s)/female (2008 est.)

Sorry, that would be 6% of the population in that age group, not 6% of the male population.

"Fleets of exploration": were they really? I had the impression that their fleets 'showed the flag' in lands already known to China's literate neighbours - they even took pilots with them.